From realism to pessimism

It's a fine line between understanding and adapting to the conditions you are presented with and becoming unduly worried and uneccesarily talking yourself out of something.

This cold snap presents exactly this situation.  Right now, it does not look good.  The snow is deep, drifted, powdery, has no weight bearing crust and obscures the route even where it's obvious.  In fact, let me express the situation more emphatically - if it stays like this then a sub 24 hour round is impossible this weekend.

However, i'm not giving it up just yet.  If all that snow became compacted, developed a strong crust and froze hard after a thaw, it could be perfect., even better than no snow.  Deep, compacted snow can offer a smooth plaster over the rough boulders and broken ground and actually aid progress, esp if the visibility is clear.  So this could work out nicely.

The forecast suggests a slight thaw on friday.  It doesn;t sound enough.  But it could be.  We will just have to wait and see.

The plan is to start, unless the forcasts presents blizzards which really would be too much.  But that seems unlikely and so we will start at 0500 on Saturday.  I've got two strong lads in Dave and Simon with me until Wasdale on the first two legs.  We'll start and assess things as we go.  There will be no records this weekend, but if i can keep inside the 23 hour schedule to Honister and Wasdale, we'll crack onto Dunmail and try and make some time.

Jim Mann, a stronger runner than me who i helped on his round this summer, is going a week after me.  He has a chance for a thaw to create the ideal winter conditions.  He's been out with Dave H this weekend on Skiddaw and the conditions look horrendous,.  Skiddaw will be my last peak and he's already imploring me to have plenty of time in the bank before we get there.  He and Dave reported waist and chest deep snow on skiddaw.  That eastern slope sounds like it's loaded and hard to negotiate.  That actually suggests the birth of avalanche conditions!!  It really does sound hideous. 

This news more than anything has made the distinction between realism and pessimism harder to determine.  The idea of getting all the way to Skiddaw to be thwarted is almost too much to bear.  Tackling that slope in the dark with windslab on it doesn;t sound too appealing.  I'm trying to hope for great conditions and that;s what will get me to the starting line, but the focus has now changed from worrying about being fit enough to worrying abot the conditions, which i can't control.

Perhaps this is a good thing.  It feels like a release of pressure.  I'll set off and see.  I'll push hard but what will be, will be and all that.  I have a million little white excuses for not making it.  So let's go and see what fate delivers...

The problem is that i'm really worried about the wonderful band of helpers, esp those turning up to help later on.  Also the road crew are there to help with a winter BGR, not some half arsed attempt.  I'm really determined to do what is possible and safe.  For their sake as well as my own.  It;s hard to be as postive as everyone is for me when i read the forecasts and hear the reports.

All i can do now is eat, rest, prepare and hope.